Election Over: Logistics Will Dictate Exit Tempo From Iraq

Now that the election is over, many within the new Obama administration, once it is seated, will begin to look into withdrawal from Iraq since it was a significant campaign issue. Many things will drive the decision-makers on this issue, and politics would seem to be the main driver, although some would argue the tactical situation should be the primary driver. Hard to argue against that last point.

However, let me try... and maybe I'm splitting hairs, but the logistics of the redeployment of forces out of Iraq will most likely be the key driver... but most people haven't realized this yet. The military realizes it, but hardly anyone else outside of the military has.

Last September, at a National Defense Transportation Association (NDTA) forum, Brigadier General Kevin Leonard made it clear what the logistics challenges are: scope and scale, capacity, and geography. The picture he painted, if you do the math, says it could take three years to exit Iraq after the leadership says 'go.' He's assuming we want a safe and orderly exit, that we want to return most of our materiel to it's proper place for future operations, and that the American people will accept that timeline.

A Perfect Storm Brewing on the Internet

As a board member of Enough Is Enough (EIE), a non-profit organization dedicated to protecting children and families from the Internet dangers of child pornography and sexual predators, I thought I'd make today's blog about the internet.

The internet can be a powerful tool both for good and evil, although the internet itself is neutral. In EIE's publication Internet Safety 101: Empowering Parents, EIE President and Chairman Donna Rice Hughes makes the point that we are facing a 'perfect storm' regarding the internet and the dangers it poses to our children. For the first time, sexual predators can communicate with unparalleled and anonymous access with our children, violating the safe walls of our homes, without our knowledge. The internet has become the leading technology for distributing hard-core pornography, grossing $13 billion annually... of which child pornography accounts for $3 billion per year. Almost 93% of kids ages 12-17 are online. Finally, many of the legal measures we need to protect kids on our virtual streets are unenforced or outdated, and law enforcement and prosecutorial efforts are often unfunded.

A perfect storm results when a number of powerful and dynamic events occur simultaneously. In light of the facts I just mentioned above, it's easy to see the storm building. However, the storm formula can be impacted by even a slight change to any one event, lessening its overall effect. Parents are the first line of defense for our kids, as they have always been. Parents need to learn what to do. If they act, the storm can be lessened, possibly even avoided. The biggest problem is lack of awareness.

Go to www.enough.org to learn what you can do to prevent this gathering storm.

Employee or Independent Contractor?

I'm often asked about the differences between being an employee or an independent contractor (IC). If you have a choice, it can be confusing. Having been an IC myself, and now an employee, I see pros and cons for both. From my perspective it is mostly a personal choice, but the IRS does impact the decision significantly. You can find many sources of advice on the internet, the library, or other forums, but you'll want to talk to your attorney before making the final choice. You must understand the financial implications, or you can find yourself on the wrong end of an IRS audit. I'm told by my accountant and attorney that ICs are under increased scrutiny lately. So, word to the wise.

But, assuming you will do all the necessary due diligence before making the decision to work as an IC or an employee, let me give you a couple thoughts. First, do an honest assessment of your risk tolerance. ICs do assume more risk. Second, take a look at your cash situation. If your clients don't pay on time, how long can you survive. You must have sufficient resources for uncertainties. Third, assess your own fiscal discipline. For example, you have to manage your own retirement program. Are you disciplined enough to pay your retirement fund first? Or will that shiny new car get your retirement money? Finally, do you have a mentor or a support network? You will discover all kinds of things that you will not know how to handle. Having access to a mentor or network of business friends (who know what they're doing), is critical to your business.

What do you think?

Ethical Failure Equals Corporate Failure

Former Pfizer CEO Hank McKinnell said the words you see in the headline above. They caught my attention when I read them and I wondered in what context he used them. Turns out he uttered these words during the years (2002-03) when corporate scandals were filling the newspaper headlines of the country. "Our health as a business is tied to the health of the people we serve," he said. "Science is difficult. Business is complicated. Accountability is not. You've either done the right thing or you've done the wrong thing. It's that simple. There are no shades of gray when it comes to corporate ethics. Ethical failure equals corporate failure."

I've observed ethical failures firsthand in business. I'm not talking about legal issues or broken laws. I'm referring to ethics... a system of moral codes or principals in business. Those I observed who behaved unethically thought they were just good businessmen. In fact, they were pitiful, short-sighted businessmen. Their actions not only harmed themselves, but it hurt their partners and their customers. Their business experienced failure because of it. This is what I thought when I read McKinnell's words.

Beyond business, however, ethical failures decay the fabric of our lives, too. Valued things are cheapened. Standards are lowered. Character is weakened. Priorities are confused. Our moral compass goes into a tailspin. And as a pilot I know the consequences of having no compass, especially when the visibility is poor.

What do you think?

You Lost Me

I'm currently reading 'Words That Work: It's Not What You Say, It's What People Hear' by Dr. Frank Luntz (Hyperion). It is fast becoming one of my favorite books and may earn it's way onto my recommended reading list. You've probably seen Dr. Luntz on election night on one of the major television networks discussing his polling results, or the results of others, or the election return numbers as they come in. In his book he offers valuable insights on how to find and use the right words to get what you want out of life.

I've often impressed myself by how easily I can confuse someone I'm talking with; especially when discussing something I know a great deal about. I could have communicated a very comprehensive and sensible plan, but my intended audience is stuck somewhere near, "hello, my name is..." As Dr. Luntz points out, small words, simple sentences, and placing things in context with relevance are essential to ensure your intended audience hears what you said. Now I try to always put myself in the listener's shoes.

Have you experienced this, too?

Fraud in Iraq and Kuwait

Today I read a report about a corruption scheme involving supplies to our troops in Iraq and Kuwait. Joel Millman of the Wall Street Journal writes that this is "a case investigators now believe may grow to include more than 100 co-conspirators." The case alleges that individuals recruited retired soldiers to seek deals in which kickbacks were a condition. This case is one of several now being investigated. Once thought to be an isolated incident, investigators now believe this type of fraud is quite widespread. I don't want to sit in judgment on 'alleged' offenses, since they are yet unproven. But I would like to say that where there's a great deal of smoke, there's a high likelihood of fire.

Often I found in my military career people who were willing and often did do 'creative' things to get things done... supplies delivered, work done to beat a deadline, etc. Often the lines were blurred as to legality or appropriateness, but the intent was not. These folks were trying to do their jobs in very difficult conditions. The troops were the only thing that mattered to these people.

What I found remarkable about the alleged fraud story today was that these people weren't just trying to get their jobs done, to support the troops. They were acting in their own self-interest, to the long-term detriment of the troops and the taxpayers. If proven, these actions could spawn a whole host of decisions intended to prevent this kind of fraud; decisions which usually mean a heavier burden on those who were doing their jobs honorably in the first place.

Our Tough Guys!

Recently, two of our very intelligent, highly valued analysts, Nick Soper and Steven Butler, participated in the Tough Guy/Nettle Warrior competition held in the UK. Tough Guy consists of a cross country run including an assault course. Running the course involves risking barbed wire, cuts, scrapes, burns, dehydration, hypothermia, acrophobia, claustrophobia, sprains, twists, joint dislocation, broken bones and death. Before running the course you must sign a "death warrant", this states that you accept the risks and run the course of your own choice and can not claim in the case of injury. Well, we'll have to reconsider the above description of them as 'very intelligent,' but I'm happy to report that each survived. I asked them if they'd now sewn their wild oats and gotten this out of their system. Nay! They are planning to run it again!! Caution to the wind!

Ah well, congratulations to them both for sticking it out. For more exciting photos of this event click on this link.

Managing Your Time

I just returned from a family vacation, or holiday, depending on where you're from. I had time to think about a lot of things. One topic I contemplated was 'time management'... or how do I maximize my time for my own personal and professional benefit? We're all given the same amount of time each day, so I can't claim unfair allocation, but I can get very frustrated with my use of the precious gift of time. Some things seem wasteful of time, but unavoidable... traffic, grocery story lines (or queues), presentations at work (called 'briefings'... go figure... they're not so brief), hold wait times on the phone when you try to change your airline ticket, or when you call 'customer service' for most any product or service you've already purchased.

Other things I wish took more time, like a good meal with my family, sailing on a sunny day, enjoying a win by the Washington Nationals (doesn't last long at all), hugs from my wife and kids, a really good concert or theatrical production, or an interesting political debate (this never happens).

I searched the blog-o-sphere for tips on time management: try http://managingmytime.wordpress.com/... good basic stuff there. But really, a little common sense applied during some quiet moments for planning work best for me. I was impressed while reading Alan Greenspan's book, 'The Age of Turbulence,' that he puts aside time each day to plan, think, read and just gather his thoughts for upcoming events. I guess the question to ask yourself is, 'Do you control your day, or does your day control you?' Sure, everyday is different, and every situation is different, but a little self examination each day wouldn't hurt.

What do you do to manage your time better?

Focus: UK Log Forces Overstretched

In today's London Times, defense editor Michael Evans reports that fighting two wars is taking the UK Army close to its breaking point. His article is alongside a major report just out from the Ministry of Defence reporting that almost half (47%) of all UK servicemen say they want to quit. This is major news in the UK, and should be major news in the US. But what was most interesting to me, a logistician, is that a source cited by Mr. Evans who was intimately involved in planning the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan added: "The original design was to draw down in Iraq in order to build up in Afghanistan. This was at the heart of the strategy but it simply hasn't happened, which is why the Forces are overstretched, not so much on the bayonets (combat troops) side but in all the support areas, such as engineers and signals and logistics."

We often hear in public debate the concerns for the state of the frontline troops, as we should. However, as Mr. Evans' source points out the support to the troops, and the people who shoulder that support, must not be left out of this debate. I would argue they are just as critical to the war as the frontline troops. What do you think?

The Unreasonable Man

I've discussed in earlier articles the challenges in the market; rising costs, changing demands, risky business environments. Let me give you an additional thought during these 'down' times, embodied in the quote below:

The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

My take on Shaw's quote is that one can either accept what's happening around him and go with it, or one can refuse to accept it and try to change the conditions and create an opportunity. It reminds me of the lemming. We can either accept the gloomy market conditions of today and run off the cliff with everyone else, or we can try to change the conditions and work to create opportunity. I know, I know; easy to say, hard to do. "Nay," you say, "it's unreasonable to do." But as Shaw said above, all progress depends on the unreasonable man (or woman).